Global oil inventories are expected to tumble this quarter at more than twice the previously estimated rate. The International Energy Agency warned of a sharp drop in oil stocks amid renewed disruptions to exports from Gulf producers, which have resulted in lower volumes at sea as the Iran war flares again.
Global oil demand is set for a deeper contraction this year. Renewed hostilities in the Middle East and shipping disruptions have pushed up fuel prices, which the agency says is weighing on consumption and deepening the hit to demand.
Looking toward 2026, the world's two most watched oil forecasters have published sharply conflicting views. The IEA expects oil demand to fall by 1.6 million barrels a day, marking the first annual demand decline since the pandemic. This forecast is driven by high fuel prices and disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz. Conversely, OPEC still anticipates that consumption will grow.