The world's two most watched oil forecasters have published conflicting views for 2026. While OPEC still sees consumption growing, the International Energy Agency is calling for the first annual demand decline since the pandemic. OPEC has already cut its forecast for global oil-demand growth for this year, citing risks in the Red Sea and stalled talks to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz waterway.
The IEA expects oil demand to fall by 1.6 million barrels a day in 2026 as high fuel prices and disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz weigh on consumption. The agency warned that global oil demand is set for a deeper contraction this year, as renewed hostilities in the Middle East and shipping disruptions push up fuel prices.
Simultaneously, the IEA warned of a sharp drop in oil stocks amid renewed disruption to exports from Gulf producers and lower volumes at sea. Global oil inventories are expected to tumble this quarter at more than twice the previously estimated rate as the Iran war flares again, even as high prices deepen the hit to demand.