Global fossil fuel emissions from coal, oil, and gas are expected to fall by 0.4 percent in 2026, bucking recent trends. This would mark the first annual decline in planet-warming pollution since 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic paralyzed the global economy, trade, and transport.
The Global Carbon Project reports that the decrease is driven by the expansion of clean and renewable energy. Additionally, soaring oil prices and high energy costs following a US attack on Iran and the ongoing crisis in the Middle East have helped suppress demand for fossil fuels.
Researchers caution that this decline may be short-lived. They warned that the trend is not the result of major progress on climate action, but is instead being driven by the oil price shock linked to the Iran war.