The International Monetary Fund has slightly raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1 percent, an increase from the 3.0 percent predicted in July. This update comes as economic and financial leaders gather in Bangkok for the fall meetings of the IMF and World Bank. The organization attributed the growth to the resilience of advanced economies and significant investment in artificial intelligence.
However, the IMF warned that the global economy could soon test the limits of its resilience. High energy prices linked to conflicts, including the US-Iran war and the escalation of the Ukraine-Russia war, continue to weigh on growth, with eurozone expansion forecast at 1.1 percent. The report further noted that government budgets are overstretched and emergency oil stocks are running low.
The report also highlighted a growing economic divide between nations benefiting from the AI boom and those bypassed by it. While AI investment has helped offset some energy shocks, low-income countries remain particularly vulnerable to mounting debt, economic uncertainty, and energy shocks. Additionally, the IMF expressed concerns regarding government debt, potential job losses, and the risk of an AI-related market correction.