The United States and Iran have agreed on a tentative framework deal to end their months-long war and potentially reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While the agreement could see the waterway reopen within days, it is being viewed as an interim measure to resolve the conflict and restore navigation.
The proposed deal is raising hopes for the global economy, specifically within oil and global shipping markets. However, oil is not expected to simply start flowing through the key shipping artery as it did before the war. Disruptions could persist for months due to the presence of naval mines, high insurance costs, and ongoing geopolitical risks.
Shipowners in Asia and Europe have welcomed the agreement but remain cautious following months of false starts. Many traders and shipping companies state that confidence will take weeks to rebuild, and they are waiting for further details and security guarantees to assess whether safe transits are possible. Consequently, the deal is unlikely to immediately ease fertilizer flows, as navigation will only restart once safety is assured.