New accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made substantial profits betting on a US-Iran ceasefire. These highly specific, well-timed wagers were placed just hours before the announcement, resulting in gains of hundreds of thousands of dollars for the users.
The bets, focused on a ceasefire occurring on April 7, involved over $170 million flowing through Polymarket, marking one of the largest geopolitical wagers in the platform’s history. The timing of the bets raised suspicions, particularly as rhetoric from Donald Trump had escalated in the hours leading up to the deal.
Trump issued warnings, including a statement that “a whole civilization will die tonight,” yet the new accounts accurately predicted a ceasefire despite limited public signals suggesting a deal was imminent. The activity has prompted questions about potential insider trading.